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bulldog563
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Reged: 21/10/05
Posts: 1153
Loc: California
Trend in DR Prices?
      #58938 - 17/06/06 01:35 PM

From everything I have seen and read the price trend in the DR market has been steadily increasing over the last couple decades. Going from accounts where you could hardly give away a double to the present day with price levels higher then they have ever been. To what do you attribute this resurgence in interest and corresponding boom in prices? What do you guys think the future holds for the Double Rifle market? Will certain types of guns behave differently in the market then others? Is there an end in sight to this trend? Would be interested to hear any thoughts on the subject.

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mickey
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Re: Trend in DR Prices? [Re: bulldog563]
      #58949 - 18/06/06 12:02 AM

Double rifle prices for good Brit and Euro rifles will continue to rise. As long as Searcy, Merkel , Krieghoff etc keep making entry level rifles there will be a steady increase in the number of first time buyers.

Many of these new buyers will want to buy quality used rifles and thus the market will continue to expand.

I wonder about the entry level rifles increasing in value as they are still being made and the supply is infinite.

--------------------
Lovu Zdar
Mick

A Man of Pleasure, Enterprise, Wit and Spirit Rare Books, Big Game Hunting, English Rifles, Fishing, Explosives, Chauvinism, Insensitivity, Public Drunkenness and Sloth, Champion of Lost and Unpopular Causes.


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500Nitro
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Re: Trend in DR Prices? [Re: mickey]
      #58952 - 18/06/06 12:22 AM


I agree mickey with what you say.

More and more people are getting into the DR maket
with entry level DR's and over time will want to progress
to higher levels of quality etc.

Also, the entry level guns can only increase in price
as cost of materials etc go up.

500 Nitro


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bulldog563
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Re: Trend in DR Prices? [Re: 500Nitro]
      #58953 - 18/06/06 12:40 AM

What do you guys think the price increase for a collectible DR would be per year? Say for example, an original Army Navy 450 No 2 or something close... assuming it stays in relatively the same condition as when it was purchased.

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Rusty
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Re: Trend in DR Prices? [Re: bulldog563]
      #58954 - 18/06/06 12:47 AM

If you are buying a double rifle for an investment. . . .Go put your money in a Certificate of Deposit!

The only real money is in high end historical colletables and that's marginal. Your investment is only worth what someone is willing to pay for it!

Quit fretting and buy your double rifle to shoot. I have never bought a rifle/pistol/shotgun/double rifle with the intent of later selling it.

Investment is always a rationalization to tell your wife the whys of your buying an expensive rifle! However, just between us and the Nitro Express rifle. . . .It's just because you want it! That's all the reason you need!

Go enjoy your rifle!



--------------------
Rusty
We band of brothers!

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mickey
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Re: Trend in DR Prices? [Re: Rusty]
      #58955 - 18/06/06 01:01 AM

Rusty

I disagree with your statement. A high end Double can increase very quickly. Average or basic model rifles will increase slower but they will increase faster than CD etc.


--------------------
Lovu Zdar
Mick

A Man of Pleasure, Enterprise, Wit and Spirit Rare Books, Big Game Hunting, English Rifles, Fishing, Explosives, Chauvinism, Insensitivity, Public Drunkenness and Sloth, Champion of Lost and Unpopular Causes.


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bulldog563
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Re: Trend in DR Prices? [Re: Rusty]
      #58957 - 18/06/06 01:27 AM

Rusty,

I know there are better investments to make, I don't think thats why most people buy DR's. Try calling your broker and telling him you just bought a 100 year old piece of wood and metal that cost more then most cars on the road today . I was just curious what you guys thought the market was going to do.

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Raff
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Re: Trend in DR Prices? [Re: bulldog563]
      #58964 - 18/06/06 03:25 AM

Fixed supply (or close to it) and an ever expanding
consumer base for Brit. doubles can only lead to higher
prices. They have been going up for 30 years now and no
end in sight. It is a real eye opener to check on prices
from the 70's and 80's and compare what a similar rifle
would sell for now. Makes the stock market look like a
sucker bet in comparison.
Raff

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.


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Rusty
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Re: Trend in DR Prices? [Re: Raff]
      #58981 - 18/06/06 09:30 AM

Micky, my original post should have said . . .High end and Historical. . .

Bulldog,
I never once considered what the market for my double rifle would be down the road. That will be decided by my heirs!

Unless I come across a GREAT deal my next purchase will most likely be a modern 9.3X74R.

After that, one of Butch's Classic 450/400 3 inch doubles with proper 26" barrels!

--------------------
Rusty
We band of brothers!

DRSS


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4seventy
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Reged: 07/05/03
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Re: Trend in DR Prices? [Re: Rusty]
      #58983 - 18/06/06 10:20 AM

In reply to:

Quit fretting and buy your double rifle to shoot.




That is the way I look at doubles too.


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Grizzly
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Re: Trend in DR Prices? [Re: Rusty]
      #58984 - 18/06/06 10:27 AM

Buying a double is consummating a long time love affair.

There should be no thought as to resale - only the thought of the hunt.

Your double will be worth zero when you pass on, because it was your double.

They are not investments, they are tools.

And a double is the epitome of a hunting rifle. It is the zenith of our charge regarding dominion over all. It is the symbol of our place in this world.

And we hunt not for thrill, but because deep down it is the high point of spiritualty. And we thank God for the opportunity he has given us.



--------------------
SCI Life Member
DSC Life Member
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bulldog563
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Re: Trend in DR Prices? [Re: Grizzly]
      #58988 - 18/06/06 11:23 AM

I completely agree with you guys. a double should be bought for the love of them and to be used/hunted with. I was just curious what the thoughts on the forum were as far as the market and where it is going.

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N320AW
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Loc: Georgia USA
Re: Trend in DR Prices? [Re: bulldog563]
      #59136 - 22/06/06 11:59 AM

Have not been here for a long while. This topic caught my eye and I would like to throw my 2 cents in.

Value of products is dependent on demand. And, of course, supply. Prices are not going to be increased on any item unless the demand is there.

Here in the U.S. they keep saying how " great " the economy is. This has been going on particularly for the past few years. I suppose they are right although the economic boom has not lined my pockets!

Example and something I can really relate to. I am a retired corporation pilot and also was formally in aircraft sales for years. Today, there are more PRIVATE JETS here in U.S. than ever before. In fact, the jet manufacturers have been backlogged with orders for years. Amazingly & tellingly . . . the most EXPENSIVE of these aircraft are the ones that are in the highest demand! I'm talking $20 million to $40 million aircraft. I have been assured that this demand is essentially the same worldwide.

My humble opinion is that when the economic conditions decline orders for jets . .. and DB rifles will also. Sure Holland & Holland will be there forever as the prices on their product can keep them paying the rent and electricty bill with relatively few sales.

No. I would not invest in a DB for $$ appreciation. The economy will change in time! I'll take the Certificate of Deposit. I would also borrow the money and try to find me a nice, like new Westley-Richards boxlock in 470NE!

--------------------
" Nature does not care whether the hunter slays the beast or the beast the hunter She will make good compost of them both and her ends are prospered whichever succeeds. "


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nitro476
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Re: Trend in DR Prices? [Re: bulldog563]
      #59171 - 23/06/06 05:16 AM

The prices have soared in the past few years but as the US economy gets worse you will see some reductions in price. The days of using one's home a personal atm machine has come and gone! I have seen some prices of doubles drop in the past few months and feel they will drop more.

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Spring
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Re: Trend in DR Prices? [Re: bulldog563]
      #59172 - 23/06/06 05:30 AM

Most anything that is in high demand of which there is a fixed or declining supply will trend higher in price over the years as long as that demand remains in tact. The supply of these guns in great condition should trend lower over time if for no other reason than some of them will continue to deteriorate with age and use. At some point, however, these guns will succumb to antiquity, which will reduce their demand as a true hunting rifle in the years ahead. Can you imagine actually betting your safari on the performance of a 200 year-old gun? Future hunters at some point will face this and may decide against their use, which could reduce demand and ultimately reverse the pricing trend that you mentioned.
There are no absolutes in investing, and that includes 100 year-old guns.
If I was going to play the investment game in the gun market, I would prefer a market that enjoys a limited or fixed supply, but may not as soon run into antiquity. The perfect combination of those two facts would be Class III firearms (here's mine) whose supply was capped in May of 1986, yet still enjoy relatively new technology. Some of these guns can even be brought up to current standards, extending their life, without hurting their numismatic value. The annual growth rate of their values over the last 11 years has been approximately 16%/year.
All this aside, I prefer to buy guns for good times in the field; and if by chance I enjoy some appreciation, then I usually think that's nice, but it likely will be a benefit that someone that comes after me will reap.


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vigillinus
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Re: Trend in DR Prices? [Re: Spring]
      #59389 - 28/06/06 03:44 PM

Reason for price increases: there are a lot more guys with big money around in the US looking for prestige items to spend it on.

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DUGABOY1
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Reged: 02/02/03
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Re: Trend in DR Prices? [Re: mickey]
      #59593 - 05/07/06 05:03 AM

In reply to:

Rusty

I disagree with your statement. A high end Double can increase very quickly. Average or basic model rifles will increase slower but they will increase faster than CD etc.






Mickey I agree with both you and Rusty! You are both right, simply because you are both saying the same thing in different ways.

The old doubles bought in the late seventies, or eighties, have more than quadrupled in value on the open market. The reason is there was no value in a rifle one couldn't shoot. Componants were almost nonexistant in the seventies. even the well worn old doubles begain to sell like gold when the means to shoot them came available. The top notch rifles in the 70s sold well to collectors, and increased far better then the field grade that was a little worse for the wear. Once the decent field grades were snapped up by those of us who wanted to hunt with them, the raggs still sold well to the nieve. Now, the market is driven by new people who want doubles to hunt with, and the new ones on the market today, are far and away better rifles than the ragged out old rust bukets, that can be bought for a song today. The top of the line old doubles are only bought by a select few folks who have more money than judgment. There are few who can afford to pay $100,000 for a Royal, and still afford to hunt Africa, so most who buy these are collectors. Since the quality field grade supply is drying up, people who hunt, are turning to the new ones, which in many cases shoot better than the old ones anyway.

I say, in view of the current sittuation, when I look at a table full of double rifles, the older ones are, for the most part, barely workable, at best. This fact makes the new rifles look like the bargains they are. The thing that caused the doubles to be cheap, and give them room to increase in value in the 70s, has long passed, and the rate of increase is slowing, on all but the top of the line. IMO, you will never see the increases realized in the 70s, and 80s on double rifles again. It has just about peaked.

I say buy yourself a double rifle that shoots to regulation, and will serve you well in the field, whether new, or old, and spend the extra money on a Cape Buffalo safari, and invest your extra money in something else for an investment.

You know what they say about opinions, everybody has one..............................

--------------------
..........Mac >>>===(x)===>
DUGABOY1, and MacD37 founding member of DRSS www.doublerifleshooterssociety.com
"If I die today, I have had a life well spent, for I've been to see the Elephant, and smelled the smoke of Africa!"


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DDouble
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Re: Trend in DR Prices? [Re: DUGABOY1]
      #59693 - 07/07/06 09:23 PM

The discussion seems to suggest there is very little relationship between cost of production and cost of a DR.

And it also suggests this relationship cost x price was lost recently after a lot of people got more $ than ideas on what to do (and probably more $ than time to spend it - the rich guys seem to work more and more hours, for more and more per hour).

Prices have increased because there are more people with money, than there are people skilled and organized to produce high quality doubles.

If this is correct, and I am not sure it is, it would suggest that one could build a business like Searcy's and have a good living, put all the children trhough University and make a few safaris in life by building very good DR for 6 to 9k. Do you belive that is indeed possible?

--------------------
Ddouble


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mickey
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Re: Trend in DR Prices? [Re: DDouble]
      #59694 - 07/07/06 11:04 PM

In reply to:

If this is correct, and I am not sure it is, it would suggest that one could build a business like Searcy's and have a good living, put all the children through University and make a few safaris in life by building very good DR for 6 to 9k. Do you believe that is indeed possible?




Not in the US. You see that in the rise in Searcy products as he improves them. Sticking a rifle barrel on a BSS is cheap but not a big seller. You need more refinement to build a business with legs.


A country with a cheaper labour pool could probably do it but some expenses are fixed anywhere.


--------------------
Lovu Zdar
Mick

A Man of Pleasure, Enterprise, Wit and Spirit Rare Books, Big Game Hunting, English Rifles, Fishing, Explosives, Chauvinism, Insensitivity, Public Drunkenness and Sloth, Champion of Lost and Unpopular Causes.


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500grains
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Re: Trend in DR Prices? [Re: mickey]
      #59696 - 08/07/06 12:08 AM

For some reason, countries with cheaper labor tend to produce shoddy workmanship. The U.K., Germany, Austria and the U.S. have very high labor rates, but produce the finest custom rifles the world has ever seen. Why can't cheap labor countries reproduce that level of workmanship?

Regardless of price increases, there are still some deals to be found. Champlins has a Heym SIDELOCK .470 NE for $17.5K and I suspect a small discount could be negotiated. That seems like a good deal for a sidelock.



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500Nitro
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Re: Trend in DR Prices? [Re: 500grains]
      #59709 - 08/07/06 06:06 AM


500grains

If I had a $ for every person I know who wanted an
English DR but was waiting for the "next deal" to come
along, I could buy heaps of DR's with the money.

I know at least 4 people (2 here, 2 in the US) who
have still not purchased an English DR over the last 4 - 6 years
and in the mean time the prices have at least doubled.

I think bulldog and a few others on this forum is going about it the right way
- find a good gun, ask some opinions and try to buy the damn thing.

With a few exceptions, Most of the people I know who bought a
good deal ended up with a "not so good gun".

Just my HO

500 Nitro


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bulldog563
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Re: Trend in DR Prices? [Re: 500Nitro]
      #59915 - 13/07/06 12:05 PM

500Nitro,

I think you make a good point. If you end up waiting a couple years waiting for that smokin deal on a DR the prices will likely have increased so really, while you may be getting a deal in the current market, you could have gotten a similar DR for less money previously as well as gotten to enjoy the rifle for a year or two.

Also it seems the Heym 500grs mentioned has sold as it is no longer listed on the Champlins site.

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Edited by bulldog563 (13/07/06 12:09 PM)


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