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A real fundamental law of supply and demand is that for true vintage quality firearms there is a limited supply. While demand outstrips supply ie existing firearms re-entering the market, prices go up.

Some scenarios:
1. Wealthy collectors continue to have a strong interest, the usual trickle of vintage rifles continues, prices go up.

Actually as very wealthy collectors buy up more for big collections, there has a dampening effect on supply as the collectors usually hold on to them. They re-enter the market when the whole collection is sold, eg an estate sale.

2. If wealthy buyers lessen, eg economic circumstances, economic downturns etc, demand lessens. Price growth decreases. Many 'collectors' buy for a future profit, they will either hold onto them longer or sell off at a loss. One wonders if the growth in price no longer grew whether people would hold on, or sell off to avoid a short/mid term loss?

Re economic conditions, if prices have continued to grow in the USA even given the current recession, then the wealthy buyers must be relatively isolated from it. This is characteristic of many expensive market places. Super premium wine purchases rarely diminish in demand. They are also very limited in supply and have excess demand. Middle priced wines may be substituted for lesser priced wines. The vintage double rifle market would have characteristic similar to the double rifle market.

3. I think there are more and more people interested in double rifles in particular. There are far far fewer wealthy shooters into double rifles than otherwise, so the market has still tremendous growth potential.

4. Another factor is the new rifle market eg double rifles. If the vintage market so outstrips the prices in the newly made market, actual users of the rifles leave the vintage market. However new prices of Purdey, Boss, Holland & Holland, various Ferlach makers, the higher quality DRs of the German and French makers etc are also not cheap and often in excess of the vintage rifles of the same makers.

Therefore with caution I would expect the market to continue to rise. However not commenting on the provenance of any particular firearm.

Lets look at one particular DR once owned by a member.
Lets guess it originally was purchased in Australia for $7000
Was sold in the USA for from memoru $46,000
Sold again a year later for say $58,000.
Sold again and maybe again, last sale from memory was $76,000. My point no. 4, the new rifles from that maker sell for more.

That was several years ago May have sold again with out it being mentioned here or I did not notice it. Maybe it is at last owned by someone who actually uses it again! Or worse is sitting un-used and a useless piece of steel and wood in a "collection". I hope it is being used occasionally.

NitroX
Economist

PS After all that waffle, I also would love to hear from the experts. My wallet is far too poor for the expensive vintage market, so the opinions of actual buyers are of a great interest.

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John aka NitroX

...
Govt get out of our lives NOW!
"I love the smell of cordite in the morning."
"A Sharp spear needs no polish"

Edited by NitroX (15/04/14 04:17 PM)