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From Business Day (SA), 28 June

SA betting on French counter to US power

Jonathan Katzenellenbogen, International Affairs editor

French Foreign Minister Dominique de Villepin, who ends his three-day visit to SA today, is likely not to say anything in public that is critical of Zimbabwe. De Villepin rose to prominence for mounting a hard but futile diplomatic effort to prevent US military action in Iraq and he is not about to stick out his neck on "regime change" in Harare. The talks with his SA counterpart, Nkosazana Dlamini-Zuma, covered "everything", according to a French diplomat, a clear sign that this visit was about placing down broad political markers. His visit followed that of UK Foreign Secretary Jack Straw and preceded a visit by US President George Bush. While they pledged co-operation in Africa, Franco-British jostling continues and gave the trip a greater urgency after Straw's recent visit. Of all the world powers, France has demonstrated a consistent, high-level focus on the continent, and there is no sign that this is wavering. It is intent on making diplomatic and commercial headway into the Anglophone countries. And for SA that alone is important, although SA as a regional power will from time to time have to seek to rival French influence.

The absence of a tough public line on Zimbabwe will place SA officials at ease with De Villepin. By not highlighting the issue, France is able to get closer to African governments and potentially provide an alternative channel for dialogue. But this sort of opportunism has its risks and costs. A future government in Zimbabwe may want to have little to do with the French. The French manoeuvred the European Union into allowing a temporary lifting of a travel ban to allow President Robert Mugabe to attend the Franco-African Summit. Clearly France was unprepared to have the event scuttled by African leaders refusing to attend because Mugabe was barred. Considering that France supplied the apartheid government with fighter aircraft and submarines, the ruling African National Congress is particularly well disposed towards Paris. In some ways that shows the adeptness of France's Africa policy and its standing on the continent.

But the world outlook against a superpower-dominated world also helps. SA took the French line towards the Iraq war, in insisting on more time for the inspectors and opposing military action. Over and again France has shown a heavy commitment to supporting and intervening in its old colonies. When the peacekeeping force put together from the Economic Community of West African States was delayed, France stepped in and arguably averted a civil war in Ivory Coast. And, more recently, France intervened to try to prevent further bloodletting in the Democratic Republic of Congo. However, in the case of Rwanda in 1994, France came under criticism after claims that it continued to support the Hutu-led government even after the genocide of a half-million Tutsis began in April 1994. SA and France have had their differences over the Congo. France has always supported the Kabila government, but SA is widely perceived to have leaned towards Uganda and Rwanda. However, with the signing of the Congo peace accord, SA and France do not have significant differences on the issue now. While SA may be pleased that French interests can balance those of the UK and the US, it may find that French interests are deeply entrenched and difficult to handle.

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